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In January 2010 improvised explosive device (IED) attacks against dismounted infantry squads in Afghanistan numbered in the single digits — with only two

This paper explores the thinking and practice of ‘action inquiry’ an embedded learning practice that can help navigate complexity when practising change together. The paper uses examples from social contexts where there are concerns about community wellbeing and health care. These are drawn from collaborative or collective leadership development programmes within public services that seek to bring new attention to the qualities of how people think, converse and interact, as part of their...

This paper proposes that pastoralist systems are better treated, in aggregate, as a global critical infrastructure. The policy and management implications that follow are significant and differ importantly from current pastoralist policies and recommendations. A multi-typology framework is presented, identifying the conditions under which pastoralists can be considered real-time reliability professionals in systems with mandates preventing or otherwise avoiding key events from happening....

This document explores how organisations can measure the level of influence that they had over an outcome. It summarises influence in terms of the significance of the outcome, the level of contribution and the strength of evidence.

Adaptive management (AM) is a programme management approach that helps international development organisations to become more learning-oriented and more effective in addressing complex development challenges. AM practices have been applied for decades within other sectors as varied as logistics, manufacturing, product design, military strategy, software development and lean enterprise. At its core, AM is not much more than common sense, as it essentially recognises that the solutions to...

The Asia Foundation and the Australian Embassy in the Philippines today released a new publication, Thinking and Working Politically in Development: Coalitions for Change in the Philippines. Written by London School of Economics and Political Science Professor John T. Sidel and The Asia Foundation’s Jaime Faustino, the book examines the first phase of the Coalitions for Change program (2012-2018) and the contributions to key development policy reforms in the Philippines. The book is a...

This briefing note shares practical learning on the use of contribution analysis for adaptive management (CA4AM). It examines how the approach enables programmes to work with theories of change in a practical, reflexive way, and how, combined with assessing evidence of a programme’s contribution to change, its findings can inform programme adaptation. It also examines both how and to what extent CA enables AM through the experiences of four large complex programmes all working towards...

The investigation of causal mechanisms has the capacity to provide donors and implementing institutions with a greater understanding of people's reasoning and reactions as they work with interventions. This chapter contributes to the literature by identifying behavioral mechanisms generated through engagement with climate-resilient agriculture interventions within a larger livelihood project in Ethiopia. It works through the steps that enabled the study to unpack the black box between the...

This chapter argues that the credibility of causal mechanisms can be greatly increased by formulating them as statements that are both empirically falsifiable and empirically confirmable. Whether statements can be so depends on the potential availability of the relevant evidence (e.g., no evidence exists that can prove or disprove the existence of God, but good quality evidence is potentially available in many other cases). The Bayes formula can be used to measure the extent to which a given...

Applied agricultural research institutes play different roles in complex agricultural innovation processes, contributing to them with other actors. To foster learning and usable knowledge on how research actions influence such lasting innovation processes, there is a need to identify the causal mechanisms linking these actions and the effects of the changes they enable. A participatory, theory-driven, ex-post evaluation method, ImpresS, was developed by the French Agricultural Research...

Adaptive programmes recognise that certain changes, particularly in behaviours, are complex, non-linear and difficult to measure. This briefing note explores the use of outcome mapping (OM) as a monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL) approach to track behavioural change and inform adaptation for two programmes: the Pathways to Resilience in Semi-arid Economies (PRISE) research consortium and the Accountability in Tanzania programme (AcT I and AcT II). It discusses the implementation of...

“Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better.” --Samuel Beckett Here’s my favorite part of that quote: the ultimate goal is not a lack of failure; it’s better failures. That’s good news for CARE, because we just published round two of our Learning From Failure initiative, and…I know this will surprise everyone…we haven’t stopped failures yet. We do have some hopeful signs that we’re failing better; or at least, that we’re improving on some concrete weaknesses we identified in...

Adaptive management approaches potentially offer us opportunities to deliver high quality results in circumstances where change is complex, including in fragile, unstable or conflict affected places. However, building adaptive programming continues to be a challenge for the sector. For CARE, our Department for International Development -UK Aid funded Girls’ Education Challenge (GEC) programming has provided useful learning on how to operationalise adaptive approaches. In this paper we expand...

These Checklists for Exit along the Sustainability Project Cycle are based on lessons from ex-post evaluations that Valuing Voices has done or researched. Ex-post project completion evaluations are rare and even more so those that consulted partners and participants in the field about sustained impacts. Over $3.5 trillion has been spent on public foreign aid projects in the past 70 years (OECD 2019) yet we have evaluated less than 1% of these projects for sustainability. Our Valuing Voices...

Changeroo assists organisations, programs and projects with a social mission to develop and manage high-quality Theories of Change. It allows you to - together with stakeholders co-create Theories of Change, and - present these in an interactive and engaging way. It helps keep a Theory of Change alive, enables reflective monitoring, and supports capacity building among social organisations. Changeroo helps you utilize your Theory of Change for strategic learning, communication,...

Theory of Change is more than just a tool or instrument. It is a mindset! A mindset to optimise impact management. As the cornerstone of impact management it is indispensable to any purpose-driven organisation targeting social or environmental value creation. It offers you the cornerstone of a learning approach toward change and impact. A way to build a mindset and organisational culture of critical reflection, co-creation with stakeholders and constant analysis of what works, why, for whom...

ParEvo is a method of exploring alternative futures or histories, using a participatory evolutionary process (hence ParEvo). The process is designed to be used by multiple people, to produce a branching structure of storylines about what did, or could, happen. Participants are anonymous and can choose the extent to which they collaborate with others. Participants are also able to tag, comment on, and evaluate the storylines that are generated. Completed exercises can be analysed using...

There is a growing hunger for more, and more meaningful, citizen participation in decisions that affect our lives. Across the world, calls for open government, workplace democracy, community empowerment are gaining support, as are innovative developments in deliberative democracy. The current COVID-19 pandemic makes these calls more pressing than ever, given the deepening inequalities it has caused and the complex challenges of building a progressive road out of the crisis. So, now more...

The 1953–1961 US President Dwight D. Eisenhower emphasized that his experience as the Supreme Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Forces in Europe during the Second World War taught him that “plans are worthless, but planning is everything”. This sound contradictory: if plans are worthless, why bother with planning at all? In this paper, we show that Eisenhower’s observation has a meaning: while directly following the original plan in constantly changing circumstances is often not a good...