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Evaluation has a long history of using experimental and quasi-experimental designs to measure the effects of programs and strategies, and through this, to infer causality. Yet, these approaches are often not appropriate when evaluating change in complex, dynamic systems. Further, programs and strategies that seek to produce change in complex settings are increasingly common. This leads to an evaluation dilemma: if and how do evaluators attend to causality amid complexity? Too often, the...

Using the hammer-and-nail analogy of the law of the instrument, often attributed to Abraham Maslow, this essay explores the minimal utilisation of theories of change within programmes despite their almost mandatory inclusion in programme proposals, designs, and evaluations. The essay then considers reasons for this lack of use and explores potential solutions to the same. The essay contends that theories of change can be used for a variety of purposes—in programme design; as complementary...

Theory of change is an explicit articulation of how an intervention creates an intended result to address a specific problem. This ‘theory’ is difficult to re/construct if the ‘context’ is complex, conflict-ridden, and uncertain. In such contexts, causal linkages leading to a desired outcome tend to be messy, multilevel, multidirectional, and unpredictable, as plans and strategies often do not work as anticipated. Whilst some activities lead to outcomes, others do not. Outcomes (positive or...

This essay makes the case that an actor-based approach to theory of change development can assist philanthropic foundations to shift from their conventional approaches of supporting stand-alone grants or siloed programmes to strategies that focus collective efforts across a range of partners on achieving systems change. It presents the concept of an actor-based approach to theory of change development and provides an illustrative example to demonstrate its suitability. The essay then...

This book sets out the responses from a group of international practitioners and experts to three questions posed by the editors around how they are using theories of change in their work, what they have found to be the limits of their use, and what further adaptations they feel are needed so that theories of change remain relevant and useful in the future. The responses we received are, given the diversity of the contributors, understandably diverse with reference to perspective, emphasis,...

Beyond a useful tool for evaluators, theories of change can serve as an effective tool for programme delivery. However, they are often not used to their full potential. This essay will cover ways in which theories of change can be more actively used in programme management to improve programme delivery. Examples of this include using theories of action in the planning, delivery, and reporting against activities, and integrating assumptions identified in the theory of change in risk...

Theories of change for interventions in complex systems present a challenge for usual approaches to developing, representing, and using theories of change. Interventions in complex systems operate under conditions of ongoing uncertainty, not because of a lack of information but because of three features that contribute to this uncertainty: (1) numerous, diverse, and interacting components; (2) nonlinear relationships; and (3) changes brought about through self-organisation, agency,...

This essay discusses how theory of change can be used as a design tool to help funders and their grantees shift from short-term, discrete activities to addressing deeper, systems-level change. Facilitating a theory of change design process as part of an effort to co-design a strategy should, ideally, lead to a strategy that highlights collective efforts and ultimately stimulates meaningful and powerful collaboration. Yet, engaging programme teams and grantees in theory of change has been...

"Handbook of Innovation & Appropriate Technologies for International Development" published on 20 Oct 2022 by Edward Elgar Publishing.

In the past, political settlements analysis (PSA) has suffered from a lack of conceptual clarity. In this chapter we provide an extended conceptual discussion, ultimately defining a political settlement as an ongoing agreement among a society’s most powerful groups over a set of political and economic institutions expected to generate for them a minimally acceptable level of benefits, which thereby ends or prevents generalized civil war and/or political and economic disorder. The authors...

Traditional monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) approaches, methods, and tools no longer reflect the dynamic complexity of the severe (or “super-wicked”) problems that define the Anthropocene: climate change, environmental degradation, and global pandemics. In late 2019, the Adaptation Fund’s Technical Evaluation Reference Group (AF-TERG) commissioned a study to identify and assess innovative MEL approaches, methods, and technologies to better support and enable climate change...

Evaluability assessments (EAs) have differing definitions, focus on various aspects of evaluation, and have been implemented inconsistently in the last several decades. Climate change adaptation (CCA) programming presents particular challenges for evaluation given shifting baselines, variable time horizons, adaptation as a moving target, and uncertainty inherent to climate change and its extreme and varied effects. The Adaptation Fund Technical Evaluation Reference Group (AF-TERG) developed...

There is broad recognition of the challenges in evaluating policy and programmes on their contribution to sustainable development. Impact evaluations of PSD programmes are carried out at the behest of a particular configuration of interest groups with different expectations. Some groups want to know whether a programme has worked, others want to know how to do these programmes better, others fear that PSD programmes might result in sub-optimal or adverse development outcomes in recipient...

This chapter reviews key literature and concepts relating to the co-creation of digital public services. For this task, it is firstly important to consider what kind of digital public services may be suitable for co-creation. In order to do so, the first section of this chapter defines what a digital public service is (e.g. with respect to different types of service providers, different types of services and service delivery) and considers what kind of digital public services allow for...

This case study is an example of a phased transfer of ownership and responsibility from INGO Nuru International to Nuru Kenya, including the exit of all international staff. Post-transition, Nuru Kenya is managed entirely by Kenyan staff, although it continues to receive financial support from Nuru International. A lot of the elements described are aligned with Adaptive Management ways of working.

The 1953–1961 US President Dwight D. Eisenhower emphasized that his experience as the Supreme Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Forces in Europe during the Second World War taught him that “plans are worthless, but planning is everything”. This sound contradictory: if plans are worthless, why bother with planning at all? In this paper, we show that Eisenhower’s observation has a meaning: while directly following the original plan in constantly changing circumstances is often not a good...

In a complex, globalised and rapidly changing world, power dynamics are multidimensional, constantly evolving, and full of complexity. The ‘powercube’ (Gaventa, 2006) is an approach to power analysis which can be used to examine the multiple forms, levels and spaces of power, and their interactions. Building on earlier work on power, and elaborated and popularised in collaboration with other colleagues through the web site powercube.net and numerous other resources, the powercube has been...

In this landmark collection, the voices of pathMakers and innovators in peacebuilding evaluation are assembled to provide new direction for the field.