Impact evaluation for portfolio programmes on policy influence: Reflections on the Indonesian Poverty Reduction Support Facility

• Donors are increasingly using portfolio-based programmes that embrace ‘good failure’ and adaptive, political programming. • However, measuring the impact of these programmes is challenging, especially for those working on policy influence and building country systems; not only do you need to measure the positive and negative impact of the overall portfolio, but also the different pathways tested. • Programmes, therefore, need a light-touch monitoring and evaluation system that allows it to remain flexible. • Good practice examples of portfolio-based programmes present six strategies to evaluate impact: 1. Develop appropriate logic models 2. Collect observational data throughout implementation 3. Develop stories of change or case studies 4. Understand causal relationships without a counterfactual 5. Purposefully select which activities to study 6. Be explicit about how impact will be valued across the portfolio. • These strategies are only useful if monitoring and evaluation is placed at the centre of programme decision-making.