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Tools for developing, exploring and evaluating predictive models of expected outcomes

Case study about the MUVA programme in Mozambique. (Maybe it "misses the point of AP which is not learning for learning. Is learning for impact. The word impact doesn’t even come up once!") Adaptive Management programming within the Foreign & Commonwealth Development Office demonstrates that the UK Government has examples of optimising for learning within its existing management practice. However, currently, the adaptive management practices are unhelpfully framed by an approach which...

Place-based innovation ecosystems play a crucial role in driving local and regional economic development. This role has been documented and understood for over 40 years in industrialized economies but is only starting to be appreciated in the context of emerging and developing economies. However, the past several years have seen an intensification of interest in innovation ecosystems among global development actors as well as practitioners and policymakers working across the Global...

Using monitoring data to improve interventions is harder than it seems. Decision-makers are often busy implementing activities, unclear about their roles in data collection and analysis, and uncertain what data matters most or when. PRISMA, an AUD77 million agricultural Market Systems Development (MSD) programme funded by DFAT Australia, has encountered these challenges. With the programme completing its first five year phase, this case study shares ten key lessons divided into three...

Over the last 15 years, a set of ideas now referred to as “thinking and working politically” (TWP) has coalesced into a “second orthodoxy” about how to take context into account when implementing development interventions. This approach stresses the importance of obtaining a better understanding of the local context (“thinking politically”) in order to support local actors to bring about sustainable developmental change (“working politically”). However, the evidence base to justify this new...

Data & research on evaluation of development programmes inc. paris declaration, budget support, multilateral effectiveness, impact evaluation, joint evaluations, governance, aid for trade

Those working to advance social change in the Pacific must understand, work with and respond to the complex and changing relationships and dynamics of power that exist within such networks, and situate their work in the context of decolonisation and self-determination. But the approaches typically used by NGOs to plan our projects and programs have failed to give due attention to these dynamics. The result is that our projects fall short of achieving their promise, despite being technically...

Evaluative Tools for Improving Campaign Effectiveness Public health campaigns aim to control disease or deliver essential health services and products through time-limited and periodic channels. Many countries use campaigns to augment or replace routine service delivery, to target certain populations, or to accelerate progress towards coverage targets. The Root Cause Analysis and Rapid Evaluation, Action, and Learning toolkits present a systematic but flexible approach to identifying the...

Research on complex systems is becoming more prolific, and there is a need to provide some point of orientation to researchers and practitioners that are drawing on the body of literature that informs the field of complexity research. In this paper, I aim to give an overview of the development of the field and offer some overarching trends and patterns that are recognizable in research on complex systems. The paper then draws on the work to provide six organizing principles of complex...

Uncertainty defines our times. Whether it is in relation to climate change, disease outbreaks, financial volatility, natural disasters or political settlements, every media headline seems to assert that things are uncertain, and increasingly so. Uncertainty, where we do not know the probabilities of either likelihoods or outcomes, is different to risk, the implications of which are explored in this paper through five different ways of thinking about uncertainty, derived from highly diverse...

Lessons from the market systems development approach The evaluation focuses on Sida’s management of MSD projects. The projects are applying the MSD approach with an aim to: - contribute to improved MSD programming by Sida through better management practices across the project cycle - generate recommendations on how Sida can create conducive conditions for systems approaches and adaptive programming more generally. The brief assesses Sida’s organisational capacity for adaptive management...

This report presents the findings of an evaluation of Sida’s management of the market systems development (MSD) approach. It aims to inform thinking on how Sida can best manage its growing portfolio of MSD programs. Beyond this, it provides insights relevant to Sida’s wider support to complex and adaptive programs. The evaluation identified several factors that affect Sida’s ability to ensure that conducive conditions are in place for effective MSD programs and good development programming...

This report presents the findings of an evaluation of Sida’s management of the market systems development (MSD) approach. It aims to inform thinking on how Sida can best manage its growing portfolio of MSD programs. Beyond this, it provides insights relevant to Sida’s wider support to complex and adaptive programs. The evaluation identified several factors that affect Sida’s ability to ensure that conducive conditions are in place for effective MSD programs and good development programming...

This paper examines adaptive approaches to aid programming in Nigeria. Through field research and desk reviews, we have investigated some of the assertions around the ‘adaptive management and programming’ approach, which has arisen in recent years as a response to critiques of overly rigid, pre-designed, blueprint and linear project plans. This is the second of three case studies in a series which explore if and how adaptive approaches, including rapid learning and planning responses, are...

Healthcare systems are increasingly recognised as complex, in which a range of non-linear and emergent behaviours occur. China’s healthcare system is no exception. The hugeness of China, and the variation in conditions in different jurisdictions present very substantial challenges to reformers, and militate against adopting one-size-fits-all policy solutions. As a consequence, approaches to change management in China have frequently emphasised the importance of sub-national experimentation,...

To shift aid culture toward adaptive management, we can: - Stay humble, empathetic, and build skills in facilitation and listening. - Focus on working with more flexible foundations or individual donors. Or, work for more rigid donors and help make their policies more flexible. - Get clearer about goals and processes while finding ways to be less specific and more committed to local leadership about pathways to get to the goal. - Resist looking for a magic adaptive management tool and...