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The institutions and power relations that underpin political stability are crucial shapers of development outcomes, to which aid policy ought to adapt. • This paper trials a new political settlements concept, based on the idea that settlements can be distinguished according to the breadth and depth of their social foundation, and the degree to which they concentrate power. • Since independence, Tanzania has oscillated between broad-dispersed and narrow-concentrated political settlements and is currently moving in the direction of a more narrow and concentrated settlement than ever before. • The opportunities for international donors to change this direction of travel appear limited. Adapting to it implies providing financial and technical support to central government, while trying to strengthen the policy role of non-state actors in non-confrontational ways. • In recent years, Political Settlements Analysis (PSA) has become increasingly influential in academic and policy circles • Despite its intuitive appeal, it seems difficult to use in practice • PSA has a natural affinity with Adaptive Development, Thinking and Working Politically, and Doing Development Differently approaches • By answering the simple diagnostic questions supplied here, development partners can identify the types of political settlements in which they work, and draw some broad operational implications