Your search

Explore Climate KIC’s S-ToC guide A practical and flexible resource designed to help teams and partners navigate the complexity of systems change in the face of the climate crisis. Our S-ToC approach integrates systems thinking to support adaptive monitoring, evaluation, and ongoing learning. This guide empowers users to analyse systems, identify leverage points, and co-create change-oriented strategies that evolve with context. Whether you’re working on a small-scale pilot or a...

For over 50 years, evaluators have used theories of change to articulate the causal logic underpinning how an intervention is intended to bring about a desired change. From its origins in programme evaluation, the approach has been adopted more widely for purposes from program design to program management. As theories of change continue to be used for multiple purposes, it is an opportune moment for the evaluation community—where the approach originated—to provide their perspective on the...

Using the hammer-and-nail analogy of the law of the instrument, often attributed to Abraham Maslow, this essay explores the minimal utilisation of theories of change within programmes despite their almost mandatory inclusion in programme proposals, designs, and evaluations. The essay then considers reasons for this lack of use and explores potential solutions to the same. The essay contends that theories of change can be used for a variety of purposes—in programme design; as complementary...

Theory of change is an explicit articulation of how an intervention creates an intended result to address a specific problem. This ‘theory’ is difficult to re/construct if the ‘context’ is complex, conflict-ridden, and uncertain. In such contexts, causal linkages leading to a desired outcome tend to be messy, multilevel, multidirectional, and unpredictable, as plans and strategies often do not work as anticipated. Whilst some activities lead to outcomes, others do not. Outcomes (positive or...

This essay makes the case that an actor-based approach to theory of change development can assist philanthropic foundations to shift from their conventional approaches of supporting stand-alone grants or siloed programmes to strategies that focus collective efforts across a range of partners on achieving systems change. It presents the concept of an actor-based approach to theory of change development and provides an illustrative example to demonstrate its suitability. The essay then...

This book sets out the responses from a group of international practitioners and experts to three questions posed by the editors around how they are using theories of change in their work, what they have found to be the limits of their use, and what further adaptations they feel are needed so that theories of change remain relevant and useful in the future. The responses we received are, given the diversity of the contributors, understandably diverse with reference to perspective, emphasis,...

Beyond a useful tool for evaluators, theories of change can serve as an effective tool for programme delivery. However, they are often not used to their full potential. This essay will cover ways in which theories of change can be more actively used in programme management to improve programme delivery. Examples of this include using theories of action in the planning, delivery, and reporting against activities, and integrating assumptions identified in the theory of change in risk...

Theories of change for interventions in complex systems present a challenge for usual approaches to developing, representing, and using theories of change. Interventions in complex systems operate under conditions of ongoing uncertainty, not because of a lack of information but because of three features that contribute to this uncertainty: (1) numerous, diverse, and interacting components; (2) nonlinear relationships; and (3) changes brought about through self-organisation, agency,...

This essay discusses how theory of change can be used as a design tool to help funders and their grantees shift from short-term, discrete activities to addressing deeper, systems-level change. Facilitating a theory of change design process as part of an effort to co-design a strategy should, ideally, lead to a strategy that highlights collective efforts and ultimately stimulates meaningful and powerful collaboration. Yet, engaging programme teams and grantees in theory of change has been...

Florencia Guerzovich

You may, or may not, be surprised to hear that many theories of change lack what we might generally understand as a theory.

There are a number of options when it comes to using software to help create a logic model. These range from generic word processing tools (Word, Powerpoint, or their Google Doc or Mac equivalents), to software that has been specifically tailored for visualising Theories of Change, like TOCO or Miradi. You should consider what resources you have to invest in software, both in terms of cost and in time to learn and use the features. If you only have a short timeframe and have simple needs,...

The United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) aimed to address global challenges to achieve the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals through 12 interdisciplinary research hubs. This research documents key lessons learned around working with Theory of Change (ToC) to guide Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) within these complex research for development hubs. Interviews and document reviews were conducted in ten of the research...

Nearly all challenges in international development tend to be complex because they depend on constantly evolving human behaviour, systems, and contexts, involving multiple actors, entities, and processes. As a result, both the discovery and scaling of innovations to address challenges in development often involve changes in system behaviour or even system-level transformation. This is rarely a linear process over time and can result in unexpected outcomes. Existing evaluation techniques...

This study mainly aimed to look at adaptive management in the program cycle (throughout Program Cycle processes, including strategy, project, and activity design and implementation) and to look at the Enabling Conditions: how an organization’s culture, business processes, and resource allocation support adaptive management. It explores elements of adaptive management that correspond to the objectives of the study as follows: 1) Assess grantees’ level of understanding of adaptive management...

While over time theories of change have become synonymous with simple if/then statements, a strong theory of change should actually be a much more detailed, context-specific articulation of how we *theorize* change will happen under a program.

A step-by-step guide on how to develop a Transformative Theory of Change, for innovation projects, programmes and organisations working on systems transformation. The MOTION project was initiated with one key question in mind: how can we help projects and organisations be more transformative, using the framework and concept provided by the multi-level perspective? And what kind of tools, methods and frameworks can we co-design that translate scientific concepts into practises relevant for...

As with all public policy work, education policies are demanding. Policy workers need to ‘know’ a lot—about the problems they are addressing, the people who need to be engaged, the promises they can make in response, the context they are working in, and the processes they will follow to implement. Most policy workers answer questions about such issues within the structures of plan and control processes used to devise budgets and projects. These structures limit their knowledge gathering,...