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Key messages • This working paper introduces a set of monitoring and evaluation (M&E) tools and approaches, discussing their potential usefulness in supporting adaptive management in development and humanitarian programmes. It emphasises adaptive programmes characterised by complex aspects, such as: (1) they are innovative; (2) they have uncertain pathways for change; or (3) they operate in uncertain or unstable environments. • The majority of these tools have been used in international...

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The purpose of this briefing note is to review opportunities for using complexity aware approaches to Theory of Change (ToC) to inform the SDC approach. It provides an overview of complexity-aware approaches and then focuses on demonstrating how complexity thinking can support programming by building on the frameworks currently being used in the project/programme cycle management (PCM) processes. It is aimed at SDC staff, in particular Programme Officers and staff of partner organisations...

The purpose of this briefing note is to add to SDC’s understanding of Theory of Change (ToC), drawing on the literature and practice to sketch out the current state of the art approach. This involves expanding on ToC beyond SDC’s current practice of using Impact Hypotheses (IH) to bridge it to operational practice and use ToC more explicitly in the project/programme cycle management (PCM) processes. Sharing the state of the art on use of ToC in the development sector, this briefing...

We think that, applied well, theory of change can support charities and funders to take a systemic approach to their work. This report identifies five common pitfalls that organisations fall into when using theory of change, and walks through five rules of thumb that will help organisations to use the approach to tackle complex problems. We think that, applied well, theory of change can support charities and funders to take a systemic approach to their work. This report identifies five...

Developing useful theories of change (ToCs) for anintervention, especially complex interventions, is not straightforward nor something done in a couple of hourswith limited effort. Agreement is needed on a number of basic concepts and terms, key challenges need to be addressed, and there are numerous issues that need to be considered.Butthe effort is worth the investment of resources and time.Theory-based evaluation approaches need good ToCs.Some of the ideas here are discussed in the...

This How-To Note describes considerations for developing a project logic model, as well as steps for thinking through a more complete theory of change (TOC). A logic model is a graphic or visual depiction that summarizes key elements of a TOC, and it is often used as a facilitation tool during the design process. There are many types of logic models, including but not limited to logical frameworks (logframes), results chains, results frameworks, and local actor-oriented models, among others....

In an effort to increase the understanding of conservation enterprises’ activities and outcomes and to improve the effectiveness of biodiversity programming, this brief synthesizes lessons from past USAID-funded efforts to support conservation enterprises

The Biodiversity How-To Guide 2: Using Results Chains to Depict Theories of Change in USAID Biodiversity Programming is the second in a series of three guides that provide in-depth guidance on key tools and practices to support design teams as they design and manage biodiversity programs within the Program Cycle and in accordance with the USAID Biodiversity Policy. It builds off the situation model guide to help design teams clearly state the expected results and assumptions behind the...

• For some interventions, tight and testable theories of change are not appropriate – for example, in fast moving humanitarian emergencies or participatory development programmes, a more flexible approach is needed. • However, it is still possible to have a flexible project design and to draw conclusions about causal attribution. This middle path involves ‘loose’ theories of change, where activities and outcomes may be known, but the likely causal links between them are not yet clear. • ...

Adaptive programming suggests, at a minimum, that development actors react and respond to changes in the political and socio-economic operating environment. It emphasises learning and the development practitioner is encouraged to adjust their actions to find workable solutions to problems that they may face. Being prepared to react to change may seem like common sense – and indeed it is. However much development thinking and practice remains stuck in a linear planning model which...

Want to know better how your interventions can contribute to change? A Theory of Change (ToC) approach helps in deepening your understanding - and that of your partners - of how you collectively think change happens and what the effect will be of your intervention. Not only does it show what political, social, economic, and/or cultural factors are in play, it also clarifies your assumptions. Once a ToC has been developed, it can be used to continually reflect on it in ways that allow for...

The Theory of Change approach demands a radical shift towards more and better learning in development thinking and practice, creating a productive and much-needed space for critical reflection.

This paper captures lessons from recent experiences on using ‘theories of change’ amongst organisations involved in the research–policy interface. The literature in this area highlights much of the complexity inherent in the policymaking process, as well as the challenges around finding meaningful ways to measure research uptake. As a tool, ‘theories of change’ offers much, but the paper argues that the very complexity and dynamism of the research-to-policy process means that any theory of...

One of our most popular publications, this brief, produced in collaboration with ORS Impact, summarizes 10 theories grounded in social science about how policy change happens. The theories can help to untangle beliefs and assumptions about the inner workings of the policymaking process and identify causal connections supported by research to explain how and why a change may or may not occur. Advocates of all stripes seek changes in policy as a way to achieve impact at a scale and degree of...