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Evaluation practitioners in the international development sector have given considerable attention in recent years to process tracing as a method for evaluating impact, including discussion of how to assess the relative importance of causal factors. Despite the increasing interest, there is a relative dearth of examples of practical learning and evidence of applying process tracing in practice. This CDI Practice Paper draws on comparative learning from applying three different types of...
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Nearly all challenges in international development tend to be complex because they depend on constantly evolving human behaviour, systems, and contexts, involving multiple actors, entities, and processes. As a result, both the discovery and scaling of innovations to address challenges in development often involve changes in system behaviour or even system-level transformation. This is rarely a linear process over time and can result in unexpected outcomes. Existing evaluation techniques...
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Process tracing is a causal methodology that can help people understand how a particular large-scale change actually happened within a complex dynamic environment. Much of the existing literature provides important information about the method; we wrote this brief to help more people operationalize the concepts and learn about practical steps for using this method more easily, with quality, and toward a more equitable world. This piece was written based on our experiences implementing...
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This article explores the challenges of monitoring and evaluating politically informed and adaptive programmes in the international development field. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of some specific evaluation methodologies which have been suggested as particularly appropriate for these kinds of programmes based on scholarly literature and the practical experience of the authors in using them. We suggest that those methods which assume generative causality are particularly well...
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Evaluators who take a complexity-aware approach must consider tradeoffs related to theoretical parsimony, falsifiability, and measurement validity. These tradeoffs may be particularly pronounced with ex-post evaluation designs in which program theory development and monitoring frameworks are often completed before the evaluator is engaged. In this chapter, we argue that theory-based evaluation (TBE) approaches can address unique ex-post evaluation challenges that complexity-aware evaluation...
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When asserting the value of theory-based methods, you often here words like “black boxes” and “causal mechanisms.” These are commonly…
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This thesis applies ideational and institutional theories to analyse how two specific ideas, results and adaptation, have changed the theory and practice of development cooperation. The thesis addresses the question of why the results and adaptation ideas are often treated as binaries and how this debate has evolved historically. In a first theoretical paper, the evolution of results and adaptation is conceptualised as a combination of institutional layering and diffusion within development...
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Over the past decade, the field of development evaluation has seen a renewed interest in methodological approaches that can answer compelling causal questions about what works, for whom, and why. Development evaluators have notably started to experiment with Bayesian Process Tracing to unpack, test, and enhance their comprehension of causal mechanisms triggered by development interventions. This chapter conveys one such experience of applying Bayesian Process Tracing to the study of citizen...
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Development actors facing pressure to provide more rigorous assessments of their impact on policy and practice need new methods to deliver them. There is now a broad consensus that the traditional counterfactual analysis leading to the assessment of the net effect of an intervention is incapable of capturing the complexity of factors at play in any particular policy change. We suggest that evaluations focus instead on establishing whether a clearly-defined process of change has taken place,...
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This CDI Practice Paper by Melanie Punton and Katharina Welle explains the methodological and theoretical foundations of process tracing, and discusses its potential application in international development impact evaluations. It draws on two early applications of process tracing for assessing impact in international development interventions: Oxfam Great Britain (GB)’s contribution to advancing universal health care in Ghana, and the impact of the Hunger and Nutrition Commitment Index...
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