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Florencia Guerzovich

You may, or may not, be surprised to hear that many theories of change lack what we might generally understand as a theory.

There are a number of options when it comes to using software to help create a logic model. These range from generic word processing tools (Word, Powerpoint, or their Google Doc or Mac equivalents), to software that has been specifically tailored for visualising Theories of Change, like TOCO or Miradi. You should consider what resources you have to invest in software, both in terms of cost and in time to learn and use the features. If you only have a short timeframe and have simple needs,...

The United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) aimed to address global challenges to achieve the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals through 12 interdisciplinary research hubs. This research documents key lessons learned around working with Theory of Change (ToC) to guide Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) within these complex research for development hubs. Interviews and document reviews were conducted in ten of the research...

Nearly all challenges in international development tend to be complex because they depend on constantly evolving human behaviour, systems, and contexts, involving multiple actors, entities, and processes. As a result, both the discovery and scaling of innovations to address challenges in development often involve changes in system behaviour or even system-level transformation. This is rarely a linear process over time and can result in unexpected outcomes. Existing evaluation techniques...

While over time theories of change have become synonymous with simple if/then statements, a strong theory of change should actually be a much more detailed, context-specific articulation of how we *theorize* change will happen under a program.

A step-by-step guide on how to develop a Transformative Theory of Change, for innovation projects, programmes and organisations working on systems transformation. The MOTION project was initiated with one key question in mind: how can we help projects and organisations be more transformative, using the framework and concept provided by the multi-level perspective? And what kind of tools, methods and frameworks can we co-design that translate scientific concepts into practises relevant for...

As with all public policy work, education policies are demanding. Policy workers need to ‘know’ a lot—about the problems they are addressing, the people who need to be engaged, the promises they can make in response, the context they are working in, and the processes they will follow to implement. Most policy workers answer questions about such issues within the structures of plan and control processes used to devise budgets and projects. These structures limit their knowledge gathering,...

This is the second blog in our series ‘Lessons on using Contribution Analysis for impact evaluation’. In our first blog, we introduced Contribution Analysis (CA) as an overarching approach to theory-based evaluation and the idea of causal hotpots as a way to zoom in, unpack and make the hard choices of where to focus evaluation research. Identifying specific links in the theory of change (ToC) with specific evaluation questions enables you to then choose appropriate methods. We have applied...

Over the past five years, colleagues from the Centre for Development Impact (CDI) – a joint initiative between the Institute of Development Studies, Itad and University of East Anglia – have been innovating with and learning how to use Contribution Analysis as an overarching approach to impact evaluation. In this blog series, we share our learning and insights, some of them in raw emergent form, highlight the complexities, nuances, excitements, and challenges of embracing new ways of doing...

This document introduces some of the key concepts of theory-based approaches to evaluation. It is hoped that readers will be encouraged by the information and advice provided in this document and will explore the use (e.g., through pilot evaluations) of theory-based approaches to evaluation in a federal setting. To support this, Sections 1.0 to 8.0 of the document describe the general application of theory-based approaches to evaluation, and Sections 9.0 and 10.0 discuss the potential...

A fair amount has been written recently questioning the value added of theories of change. Have we gone through a hype cycle? Are they…

In my last blog on theory-based Monitoring Evaluation and Learning (MEL), I explained why relationships matter, and how to assess change…

Abstract Background: Program logic is one of the most used tools by the public policy evaluator. There is, however, little explanation in the evaluation literature about the logical foundations of program logic or discussion of how it may be determined if a program is logical. This paper was born on a long journey that started with program logic and ended with the logic of evaluation. Consistent throughout was the idea that the discipline of program evaluation is a pragmatic one, concerned...

A smart new report explores how a good idea - theories of change - is distorted by the way it is implemented in the aid sector

Theory of Change is more than just a tool or instrument. It is a mindset! A mindset to optimise impact management. As the cornerstone of impact management it is indispensable to any purpose-driven organisation targeting social or environmental value creation. It offers you the cornerstone of a learning approach toward change and impact. A way to build a mindset and organisational culture of critical reflection, co-creation with stakeholders and constant analysis of what works, why, for whom...

Theory of Change is thought to be very useful for learning and adaptive management of complex interventions such as advocacy. Nevertheless, the use of Theory of Change is also under critique. One common criticism is that Theory of Change is often used as a framework that fixes agreements rather than as a living, guiding tool that helps reflection and adaptation. However, while such criticism stresses forms of control, little research has looked at the way Theory of Change and advocacy...

Despite a wide body of literature on the importance of program theory and the need to tackle complexity to improve international development programming, the use of program theory to underpin interventions aimed at facilitating change in complex systems remains a challenge for many program practitioners. The actor-based change framework offers a pragmatic approach to address these challenges, integrating concepts and frameworks drawn from complexity science and behavioral change literature...

when it was reduced to a subsidiary internal service lacking all kind of political attributions. The work done in those years had been formidable, but too many things had passed since, especially the 15M Spanish Indignados Movement, the raise of technopolitics… and the raise of populism and fascism all across Europe. We urgently needed a theoretical framework in which to substantiate our political strategy, so I came up with a Theory of Change of citizen participation (see Figure 1) which...

Key messages • This working paper introduces a set of monitoring and evaluation (M&E) tools and approaches, discussing their potential usefulness in supporting adaptive management in development and humanitarian programmes. It emphasises adaptive programmes characterised by complex aspects, such as: (1) they are innovative; (2) they have uncertain pathways for change; or (3) they operate in uncertain or unstable environments. • The majority of these tools have been used in international...