Theories of change for interventions in complex systems present a challenge for usual approaches to developing, representing, and using theories of change. Interventions in complex systems operate under conditions of ongoing uncertainty, not because of a lack of information but because of three features that contribute to this uncertainty: (1) numerous, diverse, and interacting components; (2) nonlinear relationships; and (3) changes brought about through self-organisation, agency, adaptation, and learning. In such situations, a different approach is needed to theories of change. Their primary intended use needs to be supporting ongoing single-loop and double-loop learning and adaptation by the various actors involved, rather than monitoring compliance with an initial plan. The underlying change theories need to be appropriate for managing complex systems—for example, focusing on developing an effective network of actors, creating an enabling environment, and supporting iterations of learning and adaptation rather than planning tightly prescribed implementation of ‘what works’.

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